2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: It kills me to come to a gathering place for democrats [View all]stevenleser
(32,886 posts)and the rest of the south. Assuming Bernie loses all those states since Hillary lost all of them to Trump except Virginia which she won narrowly is a pretty solid bet. And that being the case Trump would have had over 270 EVs against Sanders as well even if we give Sanders Wisconsin and Michigan.
The problem for Bernie beyond that is, if you increase the states for which you have no way of contesting in the general election, as Bernie would have done, it allows your opponent to reallocate money and time and other effort to the remaining contested states. Bernie has no way of contesting the south, Florida, Virginia and Pennsylvania. You have to have massive support and enthusiasm among the African American community and Latinos to contest those states against the GOP and the lack of enthusiasm for Bernie among those demographics is why Hillary crushed him in those states.
No crystal ball is needed. Sanders starts off conceding over 270 EVs to Trump.