Why is Biden in the lead?

[Garrett78]

119. Name recognition and Barack Obama. Pre-Obama, Biden was not considered pres. material.

Biden had to drop out in 1988 due to scandal. He dropped out after getting just 4% in Iowa in 2008. Biden has always been gaffe-prone, too touchy-feely and behind the times. But he was VP for the most popular president in modern times--the most recent Democratic president. And ever since 2016's election there's been this popular but bogus narrative that we need a white male moderate to take on Trump in 2020.

And Biden benefits greatly from there being so many candidates. The average person is not going to put in the effort to distinguish between 20 people they've never heard of.

If Biden loses Iowa, he's in trouble. That makes it more likely that he loses New Hampshire. And then he's really in trouble. Biden should be very grateful that both Warren and Sanders are running and hurting one another's chances in those first 2 states.

I see Biden losing at least 1 of those first 2 states, Harris pulling out a win in South Carolina and then Harris doing well enough on Super Tuesday to pretty much seal the deal. Warren and Sanders hurt one another and neither is likely to do well enough among Black voters (who will ultimately decide who our nominee is). Black folks can't take any chances--Republican policies are deadly. If Biden is shown to be vulnerable, he'll lose support.