General Discussion

jcgoldie

(12,046 posts)

13. I voted "something else"

Fri Dec 9, 2022, 04:14 PM

Dec 2022

I think there are way too many variables at this time to predict the answer. 36% of AZ voters identify as independents. Whoever wins there needs a majority of them. Some in other threads have estimated that many are "right leaning"... they obviously haven't been right leaning far enough in the past two cycles to help Maga candidates win... so a lot probably depends on whether republicans pick another wingnut candidate in their primary. I don't see any reason to assume she would siphon independent votes disproportionately from the democratic candidate.

People also dont seem to be considering that there could be quite a few “right leaning” independents who held there nose and voted maga because they couldnt bring themselves to vote dem… but may go for an independent thus siphoning gop votes as well.

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Will Sinema running as an Independent in 2024 help or hurt the Democrat? [View all] ColinC Dec 2022 OP

I would say impossible to guess at this point Amishman Dec 2022 #1

Fair point. ColinC Dec 2022 #2

Sinema votes with Biden over 90% of the time and is caucusing with the Democrats Polybius Dec 2022 #3

That could be a point made, but voters seem to feel differently ColinC Dec 2022 #5

But would they vote for her? Polybius Dec 2022 #7

I expect Rs to nominate Kari Lake or somebody similar ColinC Dec 2022 #9

Ducey is my guess, which makes it even harder for us, as he is not a crazed MAGAt Celerity Dec 2022 #30

Well a sane Republican qazplm135 Dec 2022 #59

She has none. She cannot win in 2024, the only thing she can do is fuck us by running as an indy. Celerity Dec 2022 #61

They should nominate Herschel Walker. Mr.Bill Dec 2022 #66

Independents always hurt the party closest to it. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2022 #10

I don't think she is closest to Democrats anymore ColinC Dec 2022 #20

I would argue people vote on social issues, i.e. the culture war. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2022 #21

Who among us is going to vote for her qazplm135 Dec 2022 #11

Not anyone here of course Polybius Dec 2022 #14

Too bad this isn't Facebook or Twitter where you can like a post. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2022 #17

Why would 20 percent throw their vote away? qazplm135 Dec 2022 #33

There are more registered Independents ("Other") in AZ than there are Democrats. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #18

And most of them qazplm135 Dec 2022 #31

The bills that actually make it to the floor for a vote are only part of the story. Gidney N Cloyd Dec 2022 #23

She has stated that she is NOT caucusing with either party. lees1975 Dec 2022 #45

Only statement I saw was qazplm135 Dec 2022 #76

Sinema will not run for reelection grantcart Dec 2022 #4

Ooof. This is a very likely possibility ColinC Dec 2022 #6

I agree with you!! n/t KarenS Dec 2022 #8

It will eliminate any chance of us winning the seat dsc Dec 2022 #12

I voted "something else" jcgoldie Dec 2022 #13

She's doing this to fend off a primary she would lose. BlueTsunami2018 Dec 2022 #15

It's way too early to know. Earl_from_PA Dec 2022 #16

The Democrats should not oppose Sinema. nt LAS14 Dec 2022 #19

Of course we should, she doesn't get a free pass. If multiple vulnerable (vulnerable to a primary Celerity Dec 2022 #29

We've muddled along OK with Angus King and Bernie Sanders. nt LAS14 Dec 2022 #32

Neither of them have blocked Biden agenda legislation, Sinema has. She is NOT 'muddling along'. Celerity Dec 2022 #39

A republican would block even more Biden agenda and maybe cost us the majority. GoodRaisin Dec 2022 #57

Sinema cannot win as an indie, and she cannot win the Dem primary. She is gone either way. She needs Celerity Dec 2022 #64

That's fear talking qazplm135 Dec 2022 #34

It will help end her senate career, which is a good thing Fiendish Thingy Dec 2022 #22

Way too soon to tell. Screw this fierce urgency of now. GreenWave Dec 2022 #24

It won't matter much. 48656c6c6f20 Dec 2022 #25

I highly doubt AZ dems will ever vote for sinema ever again. FlyingPiggy Dec 2022 #26

Unfortunately, registered Democrats make up 30.665 of the electorate in AZ. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #28

That's not how elections work qazplm135 Dec 2022 #35

Numbers can go up and numbers can go down. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #37

Except there is no reason to believe she will draw big qazplm135 Dec 2022 #53

I hope I turn out to be wrong. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #54

We have the current polling qazplm135 Dec 2022 #55

Underwater doesn't mean one loses in a 3 way race. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #56

It's not hard to imagine at all qazplm135 Dec 2022 #58

We we both concede her odds have improved, due to this move. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #65

No I don't concede qazplm135 Dec 2022 #67

You said she improved her own odds (which you suggest were otherwise zero) right? Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #69

No I didn't say the greatest likelihood qazplm135 Dec 2022 #70

Again, what is "it" and "that?" Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #71

Go ahead and quote qazplm135 Dec 2022 #72

Define "that." Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #73

Good grief qazplm135 Dec 2022 #74

You use pronouns w/o providing antecedents and expect people to figure out Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #75

Math also claimed that Hillary would win too. Math also claimed there would be a red tide & that FlyingPiggy Dec 2022 #44

HRC won the popular vote, as predicted. The EC complicates matters. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #46

I disagree. I think dems will remember her for exactly who she is. FlyingPiggy Dec 2022 #48

She doesn't really need to splinter Democrats that much. She could win by getting the Independent Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #49

The 37% approval rating doesn't necessarily translate into votes in a general election lees1975 Dec 2022 #51

It will prove to be interesting. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #52

If she runs it will be because it hurts the Democratic Voltaire2 Dec 2022 #27

Will there be a push VGNonly Dec 2022 #36

No, since she has removed herself from the Democratic primary by going independent. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #38

I don't know.. it depends on Cha Dec 2022 #40

Hurt IMO nt Raine Dec 2022 #41

Running for what? Angleae Dec 2022 #42

I think it depends entirely on the other candidates... mike_c Dec 2022 #43

If Democrats run a strong candidate appealing to their constituents lees1975 Dec 2022 #47

It was a strategic move for her Dave says Dec 2022 #50

It's a desperate move qazplm135 Dec 2022 #60

We will run a Dem against her. Gallego and others are not going to stand down and just allow her to Celerity Dec 2022 #62

Her approval ratings are so low. But AZ is on a razors edge lindysalsagal Dec 2022 #63

Run poll again in 12 or 18 months it's Prairie_Seagull Dec 2022 #68