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Just A Box Of Rain

(5,104 posts)

46. HRC won the popular vote, as predicted. The EC complicates matters.

Fri Dec 9, 2022, 10:15 PM

Dec 2022

I have no doubts abouts Sinema's difficulties with AZ Democrats--which is precisely why she made this "chess-move."

This is her best strategy to win re-election. I think it also dooms our odds of having a Democrat win the seat.

Not a happiness-making scenarios as I see it.

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Will Sinema running as an Independent in 2024 help or hurt the Democrat? [View all] ColinC Dec 2022 OP

I would say impossible to guess at this point Amishman Dec 2022 #1

Fair point. ColinC Dec 2022 #2

Sinema votes with Biden over 90% of the time and is caucusing with the Democrats Polybius Dec 2022 #3

That could be a point made, but voters seem to feel differently ColinC Dec 2022 #5

But would they vote for her? Polybius Dec 2022 #7

I expect Rs to nominate Kari Lake or somebody similar ColinC Dec 2022 #9

Ducey is my guess, which makes it even harder for us, as he is not a crazed MAGAt Celerity Dec 2022 #30

Well a sane Republican qazplm135 Dec 2022 #59

She has none. She cannot win in 2024, the only thing she can do is fuck us by running as an indy. Celerity Dec 2022 #61

They should nominate Herschel Walker. Mr.Bill Dec 2022 #66

Independents always hurt the party closest to it. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2022 #10

I don't think she is closest to Democrats anymore ColinC Dec 2022 #20

I would argue people vote on social issues, i.e. the culture war. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2022 #21

Who among us is going to vote for her qazplm135 Dec 2022 #11

Not anyone here of course Polybius Dec 2022 #14

Too bad this isn't Facebook or Twitter where you can like a post. DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2022 #17

Why would 20 percent throw their vote away? qazplm135 Dec 2022 #33

There are more registered Independents ("Other") in AZ than there are Democrats. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #18

And most of them qazplm135 Dec 2022 #31

The bills that actually make it to the floor for a vote are only part of the story. Gidney N Cloyd Dec 2022 #23

She has stated that she is NOT caucusing with either party. lees1975 Dec 2022 #45

Only statement I saw was qazplm135 Dec 2022 #76

Sinema will not run for reelection grantcart Dec 2022 #4

Ooof. This is a very likely possibility ColinC Dec 2022 #6

I agree with you!! n/t KarenS Dec 2022 #8

It will eliminate any chance of us winning the seat dsc Dec 2022 #12

I voted "something else" jcgoldie Dec 2022 #13

She's doing this to fend off a primary she would lose. BlueTsunami2018 Dec 2022 #15

It's way too early to know. Earl_from_PA Dec 2022 #16

The Democrats should not oppose Sinema. nt LAS14 Dec 2022 #19

Of course we should, she doesn't get a free pass. If multiple vulnerable (vulnerable to a primary Celerity Dec 2022 #29

We've muddled along OK with Angus King and Bernie Sanders. nt LAS14 Dec 2022 #32

Neither of them have blocked Biden agenda legislation, Sinema has. She is NOT 'muddling along'. Celerity Dec 2022 #39

A republican would block even more Biden agenda and maybe cost us the majority. GoodRaisin Dec 2022 #57

Sinema cannot win as an indie, and she cannot win the Dem primary. She is gone either way. She needs Celerity Dec 2022 #64

That's fear talking qazplm135 Dec 2022 #34

It will help end her senate career, which is a good thing Fiendish Thingy Dec 2022 #22

Way too soon to tell. Screw this fierce urgency of now. GreenWave Dec 2022 #24

It won't matter much. 48656c6c6f20 Dec 2022 #25

I highly doubt AZ dems will ever vote for sinema ever again. FlyingPiggy Dec 2022 #26

Unfortunately, registered Democrats make up 30.665 of the electorate in AZ. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #28

That's not how elections work qazplm135 Dec 2022 #35

Numbers can go up and numbers can go down. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #37

Except there is no reason to believe she will draw big qazplm135 Dec 2022 #53

I hope I turn out to be wrong. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #54

We have the current polling qazplm135 Dec 2022 #55

Underwater doesn't mean one loses in a 3 way race. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #56

It's not hard to imagine at all qazplm135 Dec 2022 #58

We we both concede her odds have improved, due to this move. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #65

No I don't concede qazplm135 Dec 2022 #67

You said she improved her own odds (which you suggest were otherwise zero) right? Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #69

No I didn't say the greatest likelihood qazplm135 Dec 2022 #70

Again, what is "it" and "that?" Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #71

Go ahead and quote qazplm135 Dec 2022 #72

Define "that." Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #73

Good grief qazplm135 Dec 2022 #74

You use pronouns w/o providing antecedents and expect people to figure out Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #75

Math also claimed that Hillary would win too. Math also claimed there would be a red tide & that FlyingPiggy Dec 2022 #44

HRC won the popular vote, as predicted. The EC complicates matters. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #46

I disagree. I think dems will remember her for exactly who she is. FlyingPiggy Dec 2022 #48

She doesn't really need to splinter Democrats that much. She could win by getting the Independent Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #49

The 37% approval rating doesn't necessarily translate into votes in a general election lees1975 Dec 2022 #51

It will prove to be interesting. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #52

If she runs it will be because it hurts the Democratic Voltaire2 Dec 2022 #27

Will there be a push VGNonly Dec 2022 #36

No, since she has removed herself from the Democratic primary by going independent. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #38

I don't know.. it depends on Cha Dec 2022 #40

Hurt IMO nt Raine Dec 2022 #41

Running for what? Angleae Dec 2022 #42

I think it depends entirely on the other candidates... mike_c Dec 2022 #43

If Democrats run a strong candidate appealing to their constituents lees1975 Dec 2022 #47

It was a strategic move for her Dave says Dec 2022 #50

It's a desperate move qazplm135 Dec 2022 #60

We will run a Dem against her. Gallego and others are not going to stand down and just allow her to Celerity Dec 2022 #62

Her approval ratings are so low. But AZ is on a razors edge lindysalsagal Dec 2022 #63

Run poll again in 12 or 18 months it's Prairie_Seagull Dec 2022 #68