Will Sinema running as an Independent in 2024 help or hurt the Democrat?

[qazplm135]

53. Except there is no reason to believe she will draw big

Numbers from independents.

1. She is underwater with independents just like with Dems and Reps. She's unfavorable to every group.

2. Most independents still vote primarily D or R. Often they are Indy not because they are moderates but because they weren't happy with something their former party was or wasn't doing.

3. The number of true moderates willing to vote third party is truly small.

4. When it becomes clear that she's only going to be a spoiler candidate and can't win, people will readjust to vote for one party or the other or stay home rather than vote for her just to be a spoiler unless they already weren't going to vote for one of the other candidates anyways. There are going to be precious few voters that would vote for Gallego if Sinema wasn't running. Probably same for say Kari Lake if she runs for example.

If she had a positive rating among independents or at some point is able to manufacture one between now and election time then maybe I'll reassess my thoughts.

But as it stands now, she is going to be looked at as Democrat lite. She will still caucus with us and she will still vote for our judges. So folks who want a Dem will just vote for the actual Dem running, and folks that don't will vote for the Rep running.

Her only path to victory is if both the D and R candidates are completely unpalatable and I don't think Gallego will qualify as that for most voters. The Republican they nominate stands a large chance of being someone crazy.