Will Sinema running as an Independent in 2024 help or hurt the Democrat?

[Just A Box Of Rain]

54. I hope I turn out to be wrong.

However, I think Sinema will draw a lot more support from Independents than you seem to believe. She is a sitting Senator--one who is unpopular in our party (and for good reason)--but for independents in independent-friendly Arizona? I think she draws a lot of votes.

Perhaps not enough to win a three way race to win, but enough to ensure that Democrats lose.

In a 3 way plurality contest, one doesn't need to be "favorable" to win, or to tip the balance of a race.

This will be a presidential election year, I doubt voters stay home.

And if it becomes clear that Sinema would draw enough votes that a Republican looks like the clear winner, then Gallego (or other nominee) could start to be viewed as "the spoiler" and the shift could go her way. People holding their noses out of "pragmatism." I think many people might go for someone who generally votes with Democrats (and who votes for our leaders) over a Republican.

It will be interesting to see what appears to happen to her support among registered independents/others.