Will Sinema running as an Independent in 2024 help or hurt the Democrat?

[qazplm135]

55. We have the current polling

She's underwater with independents in AZ right now. They don't like her either.

Her only role is as spoiler and her only hope is fear of that causing Dems to literally cancel their own primary, but that's not going to happen.

Dems absolutely hate her so no Gallego is not going to look like a spoiler because at worst he gets the vast majority of Dems and Dem leaning independents just like the Republican will get the vast majority of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.

She will get what's left, which won't be much.

Can she spoil a close race? Sure. That's the best she can do though.

I expect initial polling might give her an apex of 15-20 percent but at some point if people see she's going to swing the election to one of the other two candidates but otherwise has no path,.her support will drop.

She's bluffing with pocket sevens. Sure, she could win, but it's unlikely.