Will Sinema running as an Independent in 2024 help or hurt the Democrat?

[qazplm135]

58. It's not hard to imagine at all

Sure her odds as a Dem we're zero because she'd lose in the primary and you can't run Indy if you lose a primary in AZ so yeah this improves them... from zero.

Any supposition that she will get a large chunk of independents is not yet supported by any evidence.

Underwater means she doesn't start with some great adorations by independents. It means the majority of them don't view her favorably and are more likely to vote their party because again most independents still strongly trend towards one of the two parties.

It's not the 80s anymore where partisanship is muddled and there's truly a large middle that swing votes. Those days are gone.

And if a crazy is on the other side she could as easily draw Republican votes or voters who otherwise wouldn't vote either way or vote Libertarian since they wouldn't want to vote Dem either.

Again, any argument she gets a meaningful percentage or pulls more from Dems is fear based not fact based, at least not yet.