https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219131688
New Report Finds No Significant Change in Voter Preferences After First US Presidential Debate
Despite the flurry of post-debate headlines and statements from politicians and pundits, a new survey from the nonpartisan Civic Health and Institutions Project (CHIP50) finds little evidence that the first presidential debate between President Biden and former President Trump meaningfully shifted voter preferences.
President Biden’s performance during the first 2024 presidential debate on June 27 prompted several prominent Democrats to call for Biden to drop out of the race, and Biden’s electability has since dominated the news cycle. Coverage of post-debate election polls has factored heavily in op-eds and network news roundtables, furthering the media’s fixation on Biden’s viability as a candidate.
Unlike the cross-sectional surveys circulating in the news, however, the researchers behind the CHIP50 report analyzed survey data taken in April/May on candidate choice, and compared it to survey responses from the same individuals after the June 27 debate, reducing the likelihood of error due to differences in pre- and post-debate samples. They found no substantial change in candidate preference for these voters before and after the debate.
The Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy is a Harvard Kennedy School research center dedicated to exploring and illuminating the intersection of press, politics and public policy in theory and practice. The Center strives to bridge the gap between journalists and scholars, and between them and the public.
https://shorensteincenter.org/new-report-finds-no-significant-change-voter-preferences-first-us-presidential-debate/
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https://www.politicususa.com/2024/07/10/debate-crissi-report-bogus.html
Democrats who are calling for Biden’s removal are playing into a crisis that the media created. There is no statistical support for the idea that voters have left Biden or that there is an urgent need for Democrats to replace their nominee. The Biden debate crisis appears to be a media construct that panicked Democratic elites have played into. President Biden is doing a better job than Donald Trump of holding on to his supporters.
The dumbest thing that Democrats could do would be to remove the candidate that their voters want.
Indications are growing that Democrats are not in trouble but that the polls and the media are getting this election wrong.
Original Report from CHIP50
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s32r38vj3sct3kkrijoyw/CHIP50-REPORT-105-DEBATE-2024.pdf?rlkey=nq301dg3j6bdqt42o67eo74nb&e=3&dl=0
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