Trump at 58% in swing states? Nate Silver's swing state polls included Texas & Florida. [View all]

[applegrove]

Last edited Mon Sep 9, 2024, 02:30 AM - Edit history (3)

Nate Silver's swing state polls included Texas & Florida. So that's why way off. If you drop Florida and Texas, Dems get 78% of the vote in swing states if you copy his math.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model




The 'math' method he used is to add up the swing state point scores (the amount by which either Trump or Harris are winning the battleground states) of both Harris and Trump (including Texas and Florida for Trump) separately. Then add them together. That is the big total. Divide 100% by the big total of the swing state polls. That gives you the multiplier. Now take the separate total scores of Harris and Trump and separately multiply them by the multiplier. Do it with Texas and Florida included in the Trump swing state total score. Do it without. With Trump is at 58% or 60%. Without Texas and Florida, Harris is ahead by 78%.

That is how it is done. Then do it by making California and New York swing states and see what you get.

It is not really data at all. But such a win for Trump, 58%, serves to cow people who are Kamala curious and depress democrates workers and voters.