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BWdem4life

(2,504 posts)

33. My gut has been wrong before

Thu Oct 10, 2024, 03:00 PM

Oct 2024

(2004, until I saw the last Ohio polls and realized the fix was in.) Wanted Kerry to pick Clark for VP.

It has also been right:

2000, 2016 (my gut said it could go either way). Both times I didn't like the VP pick.
2008... 2012... 2020, I was confident.

So, in the past 6 elections I've been 5-1

This year I am confident, it's gonna be Kamala. Positive energy and good VP selection always wins over negative energy (plus Vance drags their ticket down).

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Highlight:

Gut Check - How confident are you about our chances in November? [View all] LonePirate Oct 2024 OP

Not giving up, not going back! Walleye Oct 2024 #1

I vacillate between "we're gonna stomp his orange ass' to 'we're gonna squeak by.' CrispyQ Oct 2024 #2

Yeah, this is me. Arthur_Frain Oct 2024 #20

I'm somewhere between toss-up and late night victory without a concession speech until 2 days later. WarGamer Oct 2024 #3

Same exact spot DeepWinter Oct 2024 #24

So confident I'm already preparing the crow I'm going to serve up. BannonsLiver Oct 2024 #4

It's all about turnout. NameAlreadyTaken Oct 2024 #5

Democrats win the Presidency, House and Senate FarPoint Oct 2024 #6

RSO rso Oct 2024 #32

I'm waiting to see if there are any late trends, but I feel OK at the moment servermsh Oct 2024 #7

I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see a replay of 2020 Rocknation Oct 2024 #8

I am somewhat confident. Initech Oct 2024 #9

Amazed at the "Very Confident" Prairie Gates Oct 2024 #10

I'm not. A few weeks ago, nearly half the forum who voted said she'd win by Bill Clinton margins. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #12

Jeez, guy Prairie Gates Oct 2024 #13

+10000 BannonsLiver Oct 2024 #18

No. I think this place is setting itself up a really bad election night. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #40

Wooooooow Prairie Gates Oct 2024 #44

Honestly you don't seem to "love" the confidence. BannonsLiver Oct 2024 #19

Less confident than a few weeks ago but still somewhat confident. Self Esteem Oct 2024 #11

very damned confident Torchlight Oct 2024 #14

Leaning toward more confident ...and I have a strong feeling that Jrose Oct 2024 #15

Despite living in Texas, I have guarded confidence - TBF Oct 2024 #16

Mostly confident, especially because Jrose Oct 2024 #17

I think she'll win, but I'm very nervous Poiuyt Oct 2024 #21

Republican chicanery is my only fear. Cartoonist Oct 2024 #22

In 2000 i learned to stop being confident about elections Buckeyeblue Oct 2024 #23

Chill about it Sympthsical Oct 2024 #25

Very confident, but with a disclaimer. Valdosta Oct 2024 #26

It's a coin flip - I have no idea what dipshits in 5 swing states will do. maxsolomon Oct 2024 #27

Confident, though not as much as I was right after the debate. Elessar Zappa Oct 2024 #28

As long as women can vote this election, we win it all JT45242 Oct 2024 #29

Very confident until I read crap like this: Bayard Oct 2024 #30

Win the popular vote edhopper Oct 2024 #31

My gut has been wrong before BWdem4life Oct 2024 #33

It's Schroedinger's election; we are both winning and losing. The polls don't tell us anything. Ocelot II Oct 2024 #34

I chose the somewhat option Quiet Em Oct 2024 #35

I had a conversation a while back with a former chair of the NC Democratic Party Persondem Oct 2024 #36

Was there a category for orange men? n/t Blaukraut Oct 2024 #42

If we vote, we win. tavernier Oct 2024 #37

Not sure what to think Mz Pip Oct 2024 #38

Very confident we kacekwl Oct 2024 #39

Note sure what to think WestMichRad Oct 2024 #41

Win or lose, you may be right n/t Polybius Oct 2024 #45

I think it will be a blowout that surprises the entire country. Women have had it with Trump's shit. Vinca Oct 2024 #43