Larry Sabato's Center for Politics forecasts a Harris victory!! [View all]

[Wanderlust988]

Conclusions

This current citizen forecast points to a Harris victory in November. How confident can we be in this forecast? Fortunately, we have solid baseline data on the accuracy of voter expectations from past US presidential elections. In the American National Elections Survey (ANES), they have regularly posed the question, “who do you think will win the coming election?” These responses have been shown to reliably forecast the winner. For example, one of us (Michael Lewis-Beck) and Charles Tien demonstrated that the majority of voters (on average 71%) surveyed accurately forecast the winner, and in the aggregate called 9 of 11 elections (1956-1996). (Moreover, the median ANES interview date was Oct. 7, quite close to our dates for Wave 4). In our other recent work, from 2000-2020, voters still seem able to do a good job forecasting U.S. presidential elections, with voters correctly forecasting the winner 66% of the time.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/citizen-forecasting-of-the-2024-presidential-election-last-soundings/