This is (hopefully) the pattern in election outcomes...

[Metaphorical]

1. Other patterns

* Age became a major factor in the primaries, something that Trump tried to exploit, only to have it explode in his face when Biden stepped down in favor of Harris as the candidate.
* In 2016, Clinton spent much of her time trying to thread her way through a minefield of her own, and there was a much more relentless stream of bad news against her, much of it from the GOP, but some of it of her own making. So far, Kamala has run her campaign flawlessly.
* Enthusiasm. Biden came into office because people had enough of Trump, but even then there were concerns about his age, and his crowds were respectable but not stunning. Kamala is rockstar quality, even as Trump is having trouble keeping even his ardent followers showing up - he's like a show that should have been cancelled after four seasons but has now gone on for eight, but that nobody watches anymore. (Question: when was the last time most people even SAW the Apprentice?).

It's getting harder and harder to see a legitimate Trump win here, even at the EC level. He could still do it, but I'm seeing far fewer indicators that he will.