General Discussion

teran

(57 posts) Sun Oct 27, 2024, 12:09 PM Oct 27

148

Kamala's winning, and it's not close [View all]

Jason Stanford clearly articulates - with references and data - what I have been thinking, feeling and trying to articulate to people for weeks. I can't predict the future, but I trust my gut a helluva lot more than Nate Silver's.
This is a long read, but so very worth your time. Read it, save it, and read it again next time you start getting nervous.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jasonstanford/p/kamalas-winning-and-its-not-close?r=n8oyh&utm_medium=ios

71 replies

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Kamala's winning, and it's not close [View all] teran Oct 27 OP

When the Constitution is amended to eliminate the EC... J_William_Ryan Oct 27 #1

There hasn't been a republican elected to President since 1988 with the majority of the vote. Botany Oct 27 #15

Respectfully, four things. Get rid of Citizens United. mjvpi Oct 27 #22

A friend used to work in the editorial dept. of the Greensburg Tribune-Review FreeForm73 Oct 27 #33

I live in Montana. Anytime that I engage a MAGA, I always start with getting money out of politics. mjvpi Oct 27 #66

Expand the Supreme Court. rubbersole Oct 27 #56

I'd put DC and Puerto Rico statehood in the mix mjvpi Oct 27 #64

IMHO Citizens United should go first Tweedy Oct 27 #57

George W. Bush pulled it off in 2004 Gore1FL Oct 27 #24

That was the last time. They've not come anywhere close since. paleotn Oct 27 #27

"Trump got a lower % of the vote in 16 and 20 than Romney got in 12." Polybius Oct 27 #37

In % point variance between winner and loser, yes. In %'s of the total vote, no. paleotn Oct 27 #61

Combined Third Parties were really strong in 2016, combining for 5.7% of the vote (the most since 1996) Polybius Oct 27 #69

And yet here we are COL Mustard Oct 27 #53

w wouldn't have been in the 2004 election if not for the cheating in the 2000 election and I would Botany Oct 27 #49

That was highly debatable because of the shenanigans in Ohio and Florida. n/t valleyrogue Oct 27 #55

Q: Were those results verified? A: No. They couldn't be. Sparkly Oct 27 #63

I'm going with what is recognized in the history books. nt Gore1FL Oct 27 #67

Botany .................. Upthevibe Oct 27 #29

See post 49. Botany Oct 27 #52

I would add #4 Karma13612 Oct 27 #44

Until we control angrychair Oct 27 #16

I believe the OP was talking about an amendment, not a convention JHB Oct 27 #62

I had the same gut feeling when Hilliary ran Beachnutt Oct 27 #36

We'll know soon. Scrivener7 Oct 27 #2

That's a very encouraging take. Elessar Zappa Oct 27 #3

"Nate Silver has fallen" Dennis Donovan Oct 27 #4

I read the Nate Silver piece and I just shook my head. ificandream Oct 27 #19

In short... paleotn Oct 27 #35

I tend to agree with you. ificandream Oct 28 #71

He is now paid by Peter Thiel. Nt spooky3 Oct 27 #54

It's refreshing and helps the anxiety liberal N proud Oct 27 #5

I'll believe it when PA is called for Harris on the evening of Nov. 5th RandomNumbers Oct 27 #6

YES! And maybe GA? Which may take longer oldsoftie Oct 27 #51

If i was any campaign 9 days out id want to be the Harris campaign MistakenLamb Oct 27 #7

"all kinds of white people, both Anglos and Saxons..." Beartracks Oct 27 #8

"Basket of adorables" tinrobot Oct 27 #9

Republican for Kamala sign... Beartracks Oct 27 #10

Yes, it's the non-MAGA Republican vote that's going to put us over Rocknation Oct 27 #20

I read every word of this, Mr.Bill Oct 27 #42

I recommend reading the article. Thanks for posting. . . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 27 #11

Trump canceling events and holding an inexplicable rally at Madison Square Garden surfered Oct 27 #12

He should save that cash for cigarettes BaronChocula Oct 27 #47

This message was self-deleted by its author surfered Oct 27 #13

This is what struck me, regarding independent men: ananda Oct 27 #14

What a great analysis .... ificandream Oct 27 #17

This is an absolutely excellent article! I have a feeling of inevitability after Dobbs, and believe Harris will PatrickforB Oct 27 #18

Thanks for sharing this! BluRay76 Oct 27 #21

I believe two factors put Kamala over the top. GoodRaisin Oct 27 #23

I believe Abstractartist Oct 27 #25

In 9 days... the author of the linked piece will be a hero or a zero. WarGamer Oct 27 #26

Hillary will win an electoral college landslide RandySF Oct 27 #28

RandySF........ Upthevibe Oct 27 #34

After Comey, you still thought it would be a landslide? Polybius Oct 27 #38

Kamala doesn't think so iemanja Oct 27 #30

I believe she does think so teran Oct 27 #39

We'll see on election night iemanja Oct 27 #43

The M$M ass-kissers are trying to coddle their fat fuck felon Blue Owl Oct 27 #31

So it may turn out that the U.S. has fewer idiots than we thought? Turbineguy Oct 27 #32

Great read, thanks! I shared it with friends. phylny Oct 27 #40

Great article! skylucy Oct 27 #41

Excellent piece, thank you! Wild blueberry Oct 27 #45

He seems to have a good grip on some facts except BaronChocula Oct 27 #46

I think Trump has already begun implementing Plan C Metaphorical Oct 27 #48

Dont know who Stanford is but this confidence is misplaced. oldsoftie Oct 27 #50

This is a great pick-me-up for . . . peggysue2 Oct 27 #58

Thanks for this. nt LAS14 Oct 27 #59

Good analysis. G_KIA Oct 27 #60

I have already started calling her MADAM PRESIDENT! Emile Oct 27 #65

Good Read DownriverDem Oct 27 #68

I'm sure that this must have come up again in discussions here, but I missed it, if it did. BobTheSubgenius Oct 28 #70