Kamala's winning, and it's not close

[Dennis Donovan]

4. "Nate Silver has fallen"

/snip/
Nate Silver has fallen.

Nate Silver was treated as a prophet for another two presidential elections, but thus corrupted, we invited more corruption. First came Donald Trump, who began a reordering of political coalitions that polling wasn’t designed to measure. Polls were built to fight the last war, not detect an insurgency in 2016 or the chaos of 2020. Then, after Dobbs, the dials swung left, and Trump’s partisans discovered they could game the system by flooding aggregators with what Simon Rosenberg dubbed “red wave polls.” These bad-faith polls goosed support for Republicans, but that support never showed up to vote in 2022.

Polling is broken, and yet the experts in the news media tap the dials, knowing something is off but reporting it anyway as if corrupted data were verifiable news. This creates a funhouse mirror experience for the last remaining consumers of mainstream news. As Frank Spring, who’s been on a bit of a rant lately about polling on his Substack, told me, “CNN’s Harry Enten is out here telling us that there’s just no conceivable way to read this election as anything other than 50-50, but also that it’s extremely likely that it will be decided by a landslide.”

The corruption has come full circle and claimed it’s Dr. Frankenstein. Nate Silver has fallen:


Frank Spring: “I would throw myself in the sea before I wrote such a thing or permitted it to be published in my newspaper”

/snip