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pat_k

(10,883 posts)

20. Add that to the fact even reputable pollsters. . .

Reply to senseandsensibility (Original post)

Mon Oct 28, 2024, 04:06 PM

Oct 28

. . .have been oversampling Trump supporters in an effort to avoid repeating the errors on 2016 and 2020. The assumption is that the dynamic that lead to underestimating trump support then are operative now. The problem is that the underlying dynamics now are completely different. The most likely scenario is that a meaningful number of voters who say they are voting for Trump just won't be able to stomach actually doing it -- something likely to become clearer in these closing days as people who are at all ambivalent about their support for trump procrastinate and ultimately either don't turn out or decide to vote third party or harris. So, pollsters are correcting in favor of trump while reality is going the other day. The spread by which Harris wins is likely to be far bigger than the under counting of trump people was in the last two cycles.

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Highlight:

Simon Rosenberg on the polls two minutes ago [View all] senseandsensibility Oct 28 OP

Trump knows it was a mistake. Watch out he'll promise statehood to Puerto Rico To buy his way out of this Walleye Oct 28 #1

It won't work... 2naSalit Oct 28 #4

would be 'on brand'. nt wiggs Oct 28 #6

Paper towels Cirsium Oct 28 #9

😄 Walleye Oct 28 #12

Thanks Cirsium Oct 28 #13

Sounds good Walleye Oct 28 #19

Wouldn't work. There are a significant number of Puerto Ricans who don't want statehood. Wiz Imp Oct 28 #26

As KO and others put it, "ALL the masks came off yesterday" Best_man23 Oct 28 #28

Not sure that would help. They've held at least one referendum there, and statehood failed at the ballot box. LauraInLA Oct 29 #62

Nate is hedging? durablend Oct 28 #2

People on twitter are saying that he still needs to maintain some credibility senseandsensibility Oct 28 #3

Silver & RCP always run towards reality in the closing days PAMod Oct 28 #33

Nate needs another check. vanlassie Oct 28 #8

Pendejo's... 2naSalit Oct 28 #5

More like Pinche Pendejos n/t Scruffy1 Oct 28 #7

Nate Silver is a shill. Fired from 538 he now works for peter theil ...any questions? PortTack Oct 28 #10

Oh, I had no idea they didn't renew his contract. Farmer-Rick Oct 28 #38

He was fired because of his bias work on the polls PortTack Oct 29 #60

No doubt Farmer-Rick Oct 29 #71

I am behind with much news. I did not know this. riversedge Oct 28 #53

Those polls don't even reflect yesterday's sh*tshow tinrobot Oct 28 #11

Yup senseandsensibility Oct 28 #14

that's our october surprise!!! nt et tu Oct 28 #17

Absolutely!! wordstroken Oct 28 #40

Especially on Tuesday ArkansasDemocrat1 Oct 29 #61

We could bemoan the entire affair, as it was certainly disgusting. . . BigDemVoter Oct 28 #15

Wall Street thinks he can win. JohnnyRingo Oct 28 #16

If this is a form of a poll, then this pollster is worse and more biased than Rasmussen. Wiz Imp Oct 28 #25

I agree and I remain hopeful. JohnnyRingo Oct 28 #55

Under normal circumstances, you might be able to look at ths as a sign for the election result Wiz Imp Oct 28 #57

Wall street KNOWS how to steal! Thievery is their gameplan. Clouds Passing Oct 29 #58

Well let's just hope they don't cash in on this investment. JohnnyRingo Oct 29 #65

It just may be foreign investment Farmer-Rick Oct 28 #43

watch it tank when he loses. spanone Oct 28 #46

...as the story points out. JohnnyRingo Oct 29 #66

I wonder how much Musk and Thiel bought just to inflate it n/t megapuzzler Oct 28 #54

Repub commissioned polls hedging? rubbersole Oct 28 #18

She should appoint Jack Smith as AG BonnieJW Oct 28 #49

The butt puckering over at the Heritage Foundation would be heard around the globe...🥺 rubbersole Oct 28 #52

Add that to the fact even reputable pollsters. . . pat_k Oct 28 #20

Red wave polling??? HagathaCrispy Oct 28 #21

I don't think the phrase is a standard term, but what I think it means... reACTIONary Oct 28 #39

Two fold strategy underpants Oct 28 #51

A few cycles ago, media began Deminpenn Oct 28 #56

Do you mean state level polls? They've been doing that all month. I find it easy to ignore Wiz Imp Oct 28 #22

Emerson is now affiliated with RCP WSHazel Oct 28 #29

This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Oct 28 #35

How are they affiliated? Emerson is a college...and RCP doesn't commission their own polls. tritsofme Oct 28 #37

I too wondered why they hadn't posted the ABC poll iemanja Oct 28 #30

This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Oct 28 #34

They have posted the ABC/IPSOS poll Hyper_Eye Oct 28 #32

This message was self-deleted by its author Wiz Imp Oct 28 #36

Reenact 1939 Nazi Rally at MSG was simply unimaginable bucolic_frolic Oct 28 #23

538 is garbage. They have been using Activote on most of their polling. kellytore Oct 28 #24

Agree. We had an OP about trump paid polling by 5 Fabrizio headed poll groups that Silver counts as separate polls. BS. ancianita Oct 28 #48

Trump has called a presser at his slum palace tomorrow. liberalmuse Oct 28 #27

apparently the right wing polls are affecting trump's stock prices ecstatic Oct 28 #31

trmp told Rogan the other night he pays $500,000 for polls that say he's winning spanone Oct 28 #41

One of many things that most people won't hear about senseandsensibility Oct 28 #42

I'm listening to James Carville just now say 'we're going to win this thing' on msnbc spanone Oct 28 #44

What did he say? senseandsensibility Oct 28 #45

He literally just said, 'We're gonna win this thing' referring to the election. spanone Oct 28 #47

Okay, senseandsensibility Oct 28 #50

Come on folks...PLEASE ignore the polls. We just need to Vote and Kamala has this. n/t iluvtennis Oct 29 #59

Shouldn't even be close mdbl Oct 29 #63

Trump complained about the polling in 2016 and 2020 Renew Deal Oct 29 #64

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 29 #67

Is CACA related to MACACA? mercuryblues Oct 29 #68

"In PA they're shutting down voting" SouthernCal_Dem Oct 29 #69

IKR mercuryblues Oct 29 #70