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Self Esteem

(1,797 posts)

17. Then that makes my point even more valid: this isn't going to be a 1980 romp.

Reply to WarGamer (Reply #15)

Sat Nov 2, 2024, 05:17 PM

Nov 2

The dynamics are completely different than 1980, as both Carter and Reagan were polling in the low 40s. Reagan won by the size he did not because Carter's support collapsed but because Anderson's did and he won undecided voters overwhelmingly. Even if Harris wins undecided voters by a large margin, it's not likely to change the race all that much with how close it is.

The best example we're looking for is 2012: a very close popular vote polling wise, with Obama overperforming marginally and winning decently comfortably.

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When Jimmy Carter was defeated by the movie star, Ronnie Raygun, in a landslide, the polls were fairly tight until the.. [View all] MMBeilis Oct 31 OP

It would be nice but polls have not budged much + there were a lot of undecided voters in 1980. Self Esteem Oct 31 #1

It was Anderson who collapsed dsc Oct 31 #2

Right. H2O Man Oct 31 #9

Iran purposefully holding out DeepWinter Oct 31 #11

Right but both Carter and Reagan were polling in the low 40s. Self Esteem Nov 2 #13

undecided have been breaking for Harris at a 60%-36% rate according to recent info. ZonkerHarris Oct 31 #3

Sure. But there's not nearly as many undecided voters as in 1980. Self Esteem Nov 2 #16

You do understand what Reagan did will never happen again right? 40 years ago. We are a different country ZonkerHarris Nov 2 #20

Some, if not most, of the polls are Deminpenn Nov 2 #23

What are you saying? BlueInPhilly Oct 31 #4

And, his polling has collapsed obamanut2012 Oct 31 #8

No it hasn't. Even if you look at the top polls and not the partisan, he's still polling around 47%. Self Esteem Nov 2 #14

I noticed all the "concerned" posts and thought to myself "Did this person just sign up here this summer?" Yup. ZonkerHarris Nov 2 #21

How is pointing to info showing concern? Self Esteem Nov 2 #22

No. I am saying there's no chance Harris wins like Reagan did in 1980. Self Esteem Nov 2 #12

"She'd need for Trump's polling to collapse and tbh, there's zero evidence of that happening" obamanut2012 Oct 31 #7

the undecideds aren't 5%, you're forgetting Stein and West WarGamer Nov 2 #15

Then that makes my point even more valid: this isn't going to be a 1980 romp. Self Esteem Nov 2 #17

agreed... WarGamer Nov 2 #18

I am more bullish than I was a week ago. Self Esteem Nov 2 #19

The future has been kind to Carter Johonny Oct 31 #5

As Kurt Bardella once said on MSNBC... TSExile Oct 31 #10

Reverse 2016 imo obamanut2012 Oct 31 #6

The polls are crap. lrymcqueen Nov 2 #24