General Discussion

mchill

(1,109 posts)

31. Based on the interview with Selzer

Sat Nov 2, 2024, 09:03 PM

Nov 2

She suggested that some of the other pollsters in Iowa and other states are using an electorate similar to 2016 and 2020. In her pool, they discovered since September they had to add new respondents because there were definitely new voters and the new voters all went to Harris. She suggested that was a reaction to the restrictive abortion law that came into effect this last summer and Iowa’s are starting to see the consequence. She said women over 65 were voting three to one for Harris. I think this bodes very well for other swing states that have archaic abortion laws. Texas comes to my mind first. It’s already very close. Florida perhaps. And what’s going on in Georgia with abortion laws? (Assuming those pollsters haven’t adjusted their sample based on a future electorate rather than a past electorate.)

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Meadowoak Sky Jewels

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Kamala is going to win. [View all] DemocracyWorks Nov 2 OP

Agree 100% Gaytano70 Nov 2 #1

I have said that from the beginning Butterflylady Nov 2 #2

She won't win Iowa Johnny2X2X Nov 2 #3

Obama won Iowa twice MannyS Nov 2 #9

Would be amazing. Johnny2X2X Nov 2 #10

Dems have out performed their polling in recent cycles. paleotn Nov 2 #13

Trump will win the second prize... Omnipresent Nov 2 #28

Thanks for that info. Welcome to DU @MannyS. iluvtennis Nov 2 #11

Welcome to DU, MannyS! calimary Nov 2 #19

👍! rubbersole Nov 2 #23

The poll reflects all Iowa voters, not just the late deciders. lees1975 Nov 2 #40

I think Iowa is credibly in doubt now---- Jack Valentino Nov 3 #42

Hey, either the poll is good or it isn't MadameButterfly Nov 3 #45

The last thing this poll is about is winning Iowa imho mchill Nov 3 #47

Do not depend on polls. Voters must vote as if Harris/Walz need every vote. Freethinker65 Nov 2 #4

Yes, of course. Elessar Zappa Nov 2 #5

If anyone stays home over the polls they are nuts but MadameButterfly Nov 3 #46

It's going to be RSH Nov 2 #6

Kamala has regained the lead in the betting markets, too William Seger Nov 2 #7

"DonOld" Dave Bowman Nov 2 #22

Probably should be "The DonOld" William Seger Nov 2 #24

Lol! Dave Bowman Nov 2 #26

I have been doing my best to cite "DonOLD" for a long while... Jack Valentino Nov 3 #43

If you look at the early voting data that's coming out of the different states oldmanlynn Nov 2 #8

Thanks for posting this link to Iowa early voting!--- other than the Register poll, Jack Valentino Nov 3 #44

Ok, so this is a highly respected poll in Iowa, that I get. Does this Ann Selzer have polls for other states? Jmb 4 Harris-Walz Nov 2 #12

Harris 47; Trump 44; Kennedy 3. 🤣 Jmb 4 Harris-Walz Nov 2 #14

She only does Iowa Deminpenn Nov 2 #18

Thank you! Jmb 4 Harris-Walz Nov 2 #35

Because she runs the poll for the Des Moines Register, and Iowa is all she does. Volaris Nov 3 #41

Maybe dominos are gonna start falling...... lastlib Nov 2 #15

Never never never let up James48 Nov 2 #16

I hope so and believe so, too. notroot Nov 2 #17

Yup, it's the vote counting and certification we need to worry about. Joinfortmill Nov 2 #20

Keep. On. Pushing. Ramming Speed. DinahMoeHum Nov 2 #21

I bet donOLD is having his team plan a trip tomorrow to Iowa for a rally ASAP kimbutgar Nov 2 #25

My gut feeling hasn't changed since she came on the scene. LilElf70 Nov 2 #27

Kamala really represents COL Mustard Nov 2 #29

I hope so. Groundhawg Nov 2 #30

Based on the interview with Selzer mchill Nov 2 #31

I've heard from a couple different, unrelated people Deminpenn Nov 2 #38

Welcome to DU!!! bdamomma Nov 2 #32

Vote! Askov_Finlyson Nov 2 #33

I remember when Obama won Iowa Dem4life1234 Nov 2 #34

Yes. She. Is. ThePartyThatListens Nov 2 #36

The latest twists in the corporate media narrative give me reason to be confident Rocknation Nov 2 #37

Agreed. Texasgal Nov 2 #39

Remember on Wednesday when you encounter an upset MAGAT, tell them Emile Nov 3 #48