Kamala is going to win.

[mchill]

47. The last thing this poll is about is winning Iowa imho

Trump could still win Iowa (still very close). This poll is indicative of a new electorate, mostly women (based on the pollster’s words) coming out to vote Harris. This is likely due to the strict abortion laws instituted in Iowa last summer. The consequences of these laws are sinking in. Think Texas, Florida, or anywhere else a futuristic electorate, as she called it, might not being polled properly. If these pollsters are using a sample based on would be Trump voters or would be Kamala voters of 2016 and 2020, it only exaggerates what took place in the past (either direction). I assume she means new likely voters and mostly women are not being sampled properly in 2024 by other pollsters. The Emerson poll in Iowa has Trump +10 as an example. (I also was just reading a Nate Silver article that so many polls falling so closely together is beyond the odds, and Emerson Poll is near the top in what he calls “herding”— the tendency of some polling firms to move with the flock by file-drawering (not publishing) results that don’t match the consensus or torturing their turnout models. ) Selzer is consistently ranked as an A+ pollster by FiveThirtyEight. She also mentioned the shock factor of seeing this result and resisting the inclination not to trust and sticking with the methodology (highly paraphrased).