General Discussion

WarGamer

(15,917 posts)

33. I was recently reviewing actual data...

Sun Nov 3, 2024, 11:31 AM

Nov 3

In 2024, PA voters requested a million fewer ballots by mail compared to 20.

DEMS are running -800k in returned ballots in 24 vs 20 while REPS have nearly matched their 20 return total.

The "cushion" for DEMS today is 400k ballots while it was 1.1M in 24.

To be "confident" about PA right now is nuts.

So many variables... what will election day voting look like?

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Lemonwurst DeepWinter

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Highlight:

"A sign of a huge win" for Kamala. The ground game in PA. [View all] speak easy Nov 3 OP

I look for a landslide victory for Harris. Emile Nov 3 #1

I agree with you. OLDMDDEM Nov 3 #2

Every data point is positive..... getagrip_already Nov 3 #3

There Is No RobinA Nov 3 #22

I beg your pardon? getagrip_already Nov 3 #27

I was recently reviewing actual data... WarGamer Nov 3 #33

2020 was covid... getagrip_already Nov 3 #35

Of course, agreed. WarGamer Nov 3 #37

here's my other post with links and specific numbers WarGamer Nov 3 #39

Is there data on female to male ratio of the early PA vote? DontBelieveEastisEas Nov 3 #65

PA does have early voting Blue_Roses Nov 4 #75

You Can Turn In RobinA Nov 3 #48

Can't people be asked by a pollster if they voted early and how? Or... LAS14 Nov 3 #63

That's Not RobinA Nov 3 #70

Kamala has the best ground game since Obama 08. Trump literally has none. bearsfootball516 Nov 3 #4

Musk is running his ground ops.... getagrip_already Nov 3 #7

Rofl Joinfortmill Nov 3 #29

And I read here somewhere that moonscape Nov 3 #30

My husband said he'd knock on every door & ask for directions. -nt CrispyQ Nov 3 #52

That might explain my recent experience... Blasphemer Nov 4 #77

Here in MI Johnny2X2X Nov 3 #5

Chester County reporting SallyHemmings Nov 3 #6

I did some searches on twitter Jarqui Nov 3 #8

Elmo's canvassers? I doubt they're terribly motivated. paleotn Nov 3 #24

I have read some reports of that. They're filing bogus info to get paid. Jarqui Nov 3 #42

Conning the con man kevink077 Nov 3 #53

I think it's not as close as we've been led to believe. paleotn Nov 3 #54

Decades ago, my sister registered as a Republican ... Jarqui Nov 3 #55

but this cant be true! jcgoldie Nov 3 #9

This message was self-deleted by its author ArkansasDemocrat1 Nov 3 #14

Because he started on 3rd base and has been falling forward his whole life. paleotn Nov 3 #25

All Musk will do is lose some cell phones Captain Zero Nov 3 #32

I just came back last night from Reading, PA. Beacool Nov 3 #10

Yes there are still Chump supporters in Pennsylvania, just not enough of them FakeNoose Nov 3 #13

"And Joe Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020." BumRushDaShow Nov 3 #18

"Biden won it by 81,000 votes..." dchill Nov 3 #40

+infinity BumRushDaShow Nov 3 #44

Here's hoping that Kamala wins PA by an even bigger margin. Beacool Nov 3 #57

I hope so BumRushDaShow Nov 3 #58

I'm hoping that PA is in the bag. Beacool Nov 3 #56

We have them in VT too. I doubt VT will flip. paleotn Nov 3 #23

Democrats win PA in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia... dchill Nov 3 #38

Erie usually votes blue, also Harrisburg and State College area FakeNoose Nov 3 #68

I believe you're right! 👍 dchill Nov 3 #71

From what i can see in the data askyagerz Nov 4 #76

Pendejo45 doesn't care about a ground game, he only cares about getting respectable number of votes so he can ... aggiesal Nov 3 #11

Several folks here predicted this when Farmer-Rick Nov 3 #12

All good points Farmer Rick FakeNoose Nov 3 #15

You've got them, exactly. And Elmo has never been able to run a business. paleotn Nov 3 #28

The RW church congregations got what they wanted with Dobbs. yardwork Nov 3 #34

Where I live in Philly (NW) I had 1 canvasser group (I think there were 3 of them) early on BumRushDaShow Nov 3 #16

Canvassing in Columbia County, PA Borogove Nov 3 #17

Please explain DownriverDem Nov 3 #19

I guess it is just state rules - in TX we have to register to vote TBF Nov 3 #21

An anachronism. State's laws control elections within the state, even in national elections. paleotn Nov 3 #31

"why some states make you register by party?" BumRushDaShow Nov 3 #45

I don't know PA, but if it's like the other midwest "blue" states TBF Nov 3 #20

"I don't know PA, but if it's like the other midwest "blue" states" BumRushDaShow Nov 3 #49

lol - in my mind being midwestern is a compliment! TBF Nov 3 #59

"but interesting that the outsourcing was a little earlier in PA" BumRushDaShow Nov 3 #60

Checking in from Bucks County, PA. FalloutShelter Nov 3 #26

Whereabouts are u living? PCIntern Nov 3 #36

Doylestown... FalloutShelter Nov 3 #41

I'm pretty confident... PCIntern Nov 3 #43

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? FalloutShelter Nov 3 #46

I was in K building... PCIntern Nov 3 #47

Don't remember what building I was in... FalloutShelter Nov 3 #50

Cheers!! PCIntern Nov 3 #51

I am in Allegheny County. Ten miles south of Pittsburgh which is always Blue. debm55 Nov 3 #62

Dad was a Pittsburgher...Duquesne grad. PCIntern Nov 3 #64

Good to hear. But might you live in a blue neighborhood that Trump canvassers are skipping? nt LAS14 Nov 3 #66

Absolutely not. FalloutShelter Nov 3 #67

Well, then, it's really, really good to hear!!!! nt LAS14 Nov 3 #69

Sure 👍🏻 is. FalloutShelter Nov 3 #73

My Neigborhood RobinA Nov 3 #72

Good to hear! But do you live in a blue neighborhood? nt LAS14 Nov 3 #61

Mahalo to you & the Canvassers For Kamala!🕊️🕯️💙🌊🌊🌊💙🇺🇸🌈 Cha Nov 4 #74

It is all about ground game in a tied state kansasobama Nov 4 #78

I even think Harris will win Iowa too! Emile Nov 4 #79