This exit poll result suggests that the biggest factor was

[Bluetus]

60. "The economy" is not the same thing as "inflation"

Last edited Thu Nov 7, 2024, 01:23 AM - Edit history (1)

but I agree with the poll and the OP that this is where the election was lost more than any other single factor.

Objectively, this is the best economy in 40 years, and it comes when virtually all economists were predicting a recession, or at best a "soft landing", which is a mini-recession. In fact, the economy is nowhere near recession. It really is strong.

So are Republicans irrational? No, they just don't understand economics very well. Most people with post-HS education vote Democratic. That doesn't make those with less formal education bad people or stupid. But it does make them much more susceptible to misinformation and gaslighting.

When they say "the economy is bad", most of them mean "I remember when we could buy a Happy Meal for $4, and now it is $7". Much of what the Harris campaign did was remarkably good, considering the short timeline. But they completely failed to explain to the voters about inflation. The message needed to be stated clearly and frequently,

"When COVID shut down much of our economy, supply chains all over the world were messed up. Over a million Americans died, and that included hundreds of thousands of people that staffed meat plants, car parts suppliers and many other industries. When we were able to safely return to work, we couldn't get many of the things we needed. The law of supply and demand drove up prices on many items during 2021, even into 2022. And prices went up. Some of the prices have come down, some have not and will not. But inflation today is about 2% annually, and that is exactly where the FED wants it to be. The economy is as strong as it has been in 40 years, and that includes real wage increases for many working Americans. I know this has been a difficult adjustment for many people, especially if you had to change jobs in order to get better wages, but that adjustment is mostly over. There are many good jobs available and very low inflation now.

The campaign never explained this, and that was a huge mistake, I think.