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onenote

(44,805 posts)

40. Your assumptions and math are incorrect.

Fri Nov 8, 2024, 12:16 AM

Nov 8

First, NBC currently projects that the number of uncounted votes in California is 6,229,000. But even if it was 9 million and even if Harris was to get the same percentage of those ballots that Biden received in California in 2020, namely 63.48, she would get around 5.7 million votes and if Trump got the same percentage as he received in 2020, namely 34.32, he would get around 3.1 million votes. That would give Harris a net gain of 2.6 millions, which would cut Trump's margin, but not by nearly enough to overcome his current lead in California. And the fact is that Harris thus far is getting a significantly smaller percentage of the votes than Biden received (57..6% v 63.48%) and Trump is doing considerably better than he did in 2020 (39.8 percent v. 34.32 percent).

Bottom line, the final numbers aren't in and it is very likely that when they are, Trump's lead over Harris in California and nationally will have shrunk somewhat. But the chances that she will overtake him, while not mathematically impossible, are quite slim at this point.

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Trump hasn't won the popular vote [View all] Galraedia Nov 7 OP

So we got Electoral College'd again Freddie Nov 7 #1

No Polybius Nov 7 #10

Kamala is Bound to get at least 50% of the 9 million of Democratic Blue California !!!!! Trueblue1968 Nov 7 #33

Yep we got Electoral College'd again KS Toronado Nov 8 #55

I am hoping you are right. roamer65 Nov 7 #2

I would consider him illegitimate... Karasu Nov 8 #57

I agree. roamer65 Nov 8 #61

Thanks - I hope that comes to pass. It will be nice to know more people do not approve of him. walkingman Nov 7 #3

3 elections in a row - WI, MI, and PA. total winning vote across the 3 not even 200K msongs Nov 7 #4

So far President Trump is winning about 40% of the votes in CA. If that continues he will get kelly1mm Nov 7 #5

He's winning at that level right now because the more Democratic mail-in votes haven't been received/counted yet....... W_HAMILTON Nov 7 #8

Given all we know about the 2024 election so far, particularly the significantly increased early/absentee kelly1mm Nov 7 #14

Republicans still mostly voted in-person -- not by mail -- even when early voting. W_HAMILTON Nov 7 #15

On that we agree! We can wait a few days to see who the popular vote winner is. Especially since kelly1mm Nov 7 #17

It will be more than few days, if previous elections were any indication. W_HAMILTON Nov 7 #21

This. The rapist will not win the popular vote. onecaliberal Nov 7 #27

False! DEM1955 Nov 7 #13

You are correct! My bad! He is only at 39.8% with almost 60% of the vote in. My prediction is he kelly1mm Nov 7 #16

WTF DEM1955 Nov 7 #20

The popular vote winner is meaningless in our system. Ask Hillery Clinton if you are not kelly1mm Nov 7 #22

Him NOT getting the popular Blue_Roses Nov 7 #32

Well that certainly would be a pleasant surprise! We will see eventually how it shakes out. nt kelly1mm Nov 7 #37

dictator tRump, not president, you already lost the argument. nt yaesu Nov 7 #25

Ok sure I have. All former Presidents have been referred to by the honorific 'President' nt kelly1mm Nov 7 #30

His behavior has shown that he is not marybourg Nov 8 #50

I disagree. Just like President Biden invited President Trump to the White House and VP Harris kelly1mm Nov 8 #56

Right now he's at 39.8% and dropping. Galraedia Nov 8 #41

We shall see soon enough. While President Trump is hitting his 2020 raw number kelly1mm Nov 8 #42

May it be so. TomSlick Nov 7 #6

You only think Trump is getting 2 million votes out of 9 million left? Polybius Nov 7 #7

That would be disappointing.nt jfz9580m Nov 7 #12

California is at 58%/40% now and the majority of the ballots still remaining will tilt heavily Democratic. W_HAMILTON Nov 7 #19

Is 2-1 even enough though? Polybius Nov 7 #26

18 states + DC will accept and count a mailed ballot if it is postmarked by, but received after, Election Day. W_HAMILTON Nov 7 #31

Gotcha, so we probably won't know until next week or so Polybius Nov 7 #34

You try so hard!! dpibel Nov 8 #54

Thanks? Polybius Nov 8 #63

Trump got no more than 6 million in 2020 and the votes for him are pretty consistant as they were in 2020 Galraedia Nov 8 #44

What's left is more blue bur not that much more blue. DemocratSinceBirth Nov 8 #45

I really hope so jfz9580m Nov 7 #9

if he loses the popular vote, will it matter? The media has already gone on for days ecstatic Nov 7 #11

well that is fake news then. I wondered how the hell Dump won popular vote. peacebuzzard Nov 7 #28

Getting the low popular vote is not a mandate LiberalFighter Nov 7 #18

Not gonna happen Zeitghost Nov 7 #23

But, but Diraven Nov 7 #24

"...it's dishonest for certain media...to claim that Trump has a mandate..." LudwigPastorius Nov 7 #29

And he'll say he has it regardless, and the media won't call him on it anyway. Xavier Breath Nov 7 #36

Yeah but he does need to convince everyone that it's the will of the people. Galraedia Nov 7 #38

The fact that we are even debating this means the EC needs to be abolished. roamer65 Nov 7 #35

Out of the seven times I've voted in a Presidential election happybird Nov 8 #43

If he doesn't win the popular vote then markodochartaigh Nov 8 #39

Your assumptions and math are incorrect. onenote Nov 8 #40

It's an interesting psychological phenomenon FBaggins Nov 8 #59

No, NBC numbers are incorrect. Galraedia Nov 8 #62

Sick feeling.... It was stolen... the whole GD thing MomInTheCrowd Nov 8 #46

the purges proud patriot Nov 8 #52

iirc stacy abrams did an analysis and came up w a number of votes that were suppressed in her 2nd race. mopinko Nov 8 #64

You are REALLY helping my depressed BigDemVoter Nov 8 #47

if we need to rebuild america in a 2.0 fashion DonCoquixote Nov 8 #48

With Republicans controlling a majority of state legislatures Kaleva Nov 8 #51

Message auto-removed Name removed Nov 8 #58

Washington State and DC are still counting too. That's another approx. 350,000 votes for Harris. nt SunSeeker Nov 8 #49

popular vote means nothing. how many EVs will flip? AZLD4Candidate Nov 8 #53

Like it or not, for some bizarrely not, the gap is closing. GreenWave Nov 8 #60

They'll just think you meant to say "penis", and open another bag of Doritos... Jack Valentino Nov 8 #65