Want A Reason Why Kamala Lost That Makes Sense

[Nasruddin]

101. A couple other things

Not discounting things people point to, but a few others to consider:
1 - The body autonomy / Dobbs reaction has run its course - people are OK with what (they think) has / is going to happen
(also look at the split voting on this)
2 - The Lincoln Project scrape a few percent of Republicans off has run its course
3 - Normalcy bias is a huge problem
We are taking for granted that things after this will be normal ie we are not believing our own warnings about the consequences of this election. We're not alone, look at the stock market
(related) polling appears to be completely useless - I don't mean that I was tricked by it, who cares, but apparently the campaigns were. Useful info about whether your message is working or not appears to be unavailable
The polling "science" has gotten to a point where it's unfalsifiable (margin of error management)
4 -Timur Kuran's Preference Falsification theory is even more important than I thought it was (closely related to the uselessness of polling)