This may be the game plan. [View all]

[Qutzupalotl]

Rick Wilson retweeted this and it scared the shit out of me…but I could not find the lie. I am also posting the author's advice on how to navigate a potential crisis.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

The global economy is about to be fucked up in ways that will have economists and historians studying the aftermath for generations to come. People have no idea. Those with savings and equities are most at risk.

The combination of failure to pass an Omnibus, likely US debt default, and shunting US Treasury assets into a “strategic bitcoin reserve,” and totally unregulated Ponzi crypto asset bubbles is a recipe for destruction of US and EU. The dollar will become worthless.

This sets up a zero sum game, to steal assets from those who have them now, and give them to people who hold play crypto assets. This paper explains how. Warning: requires reading, not just vibes, to understand.

The distributional consequences of Bitcoin
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4985877

The only thing that can possibly stop this is a critical mass of Republicans breaking with the Freedom Caucus cult and threatening their peers with stark consequences. But that’s unlikely, and they don’t have much leverage.

————-

MANAGING FINANCIAL INSTABILITY IN 2025

The incoming Trump/Vance administration has the potential to unleash widespread economic harms, many of which are not on people’s radar. This document is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. I am an analyst of history and warfare, and this is an analysis of current warfare operations.

1. We assess that the Presidency has been captured by Vladimir Putin. Until we see proof otherwise, assume that Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and JD Vance are proxies for Putin, Xi, and their allies.

2. Russia’s strategic goal is to dismantle the United States. They will pursue this primarily through trying to destroy the dollar and by “ending” the Federal Reserve. In addition, they have been backing secessionist movements in multiple states and may try to capture Alaska.

3. Russia believes that democracy doesn’t work.[1] Because they think democracies don’t work, they believe they can be defeated and captured. The United States is the biggest prize. Canada and Europe are up next.

4. Bitcoin is a weapon.[2] Bitcoin sets up a zero-sum game between holders and non-holders, enhancing holders’ purchasing power while eroding the dollar and the purchasing power of non-holders. People who do not hold Bitcoin (or derivatives) will be impoverished at the expense of people who do. It is impossible to hedge by buying Bitcoin without eroding the value of dollar holdings. Importantly, Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme that harms non-participants — i.e. it’s not enough to avoid it, and you can’t just ignore it. It must be destroyed. Republicans are now promoting Bitcoin, and the creation of a “U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” which is intended to set off a vicious cycle that will spike the price of Bitcoin while undermining the dollar. This will prove ruinous.

5. Christian Nationalists also believe the dollar and the Fed must be destroyed.[3] Elon Musk has indicated he would bring Ron Paul into his government efficiency effort. Ron Paul and Gary North created the “North/Paul” strategy decades ago with the express intent of crashing the US economy, killing the dollar, and replacing it with gold-backed money. This plan is also compatible with crypto and BRICS based schemes. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) also introduced the Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act in May 2024 to “End the Fed.”

IMMEDIATE FINANCIAL RISKS

1. There are indications that a 2025 budget will simply not be passed. The “secret” between Trump and Johnson may be that Johnson simply will not present a budget bill for floor vote. If that happens, the US federal government will shut down until such time as some resolution is reached.

2. Musk and Johnson may propose massive cuts to the budget. Musk has been talking about imposing $2 Trillion in cuts to the ~$6 Trillion budget. Only 26% of the budget (about $1.6 Trillion) is discretionary spending. So Musk is talking about eliminating over 100% of the discretionary budget — all of it, and then some.

3. The risk of US debt default will be used as leverage to extract draconian cuts. If no budget is passed and/or the debt ceiling is not increased, the US may default on its debt, which would trigger a ~$15 Trillion global economic meltdown. Even flirting with default may trigger a downgrade of US creditworthiness, increasing interest costs and accelerating a crisis.

4. The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve may trigger additional instability. Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has proposed the creation of a “strategic Bitcoin reserve,” directing US treasury funds into Bitcoin. This will cause a Bitcoin price hike, enrich speculators, while simultaneously undermining equities and the dollar.

JANUARY 2025 TIMELINE

The most dangerous period will be the first six months of 2025, which is when the budget and debt ceiling issues must be addressed. The government runs out of money on January 2. The new Congress will be installed January 3. If no budget or debt ceiling bill is passed by January 2, Secretary Yellen will need to invoke “extraordinary measures” to limit cash expenditures through January 20. Then, a new acting Treasury secretary (possibly Vivek Ramaswamy, or another extremist) may be installed as soon as January 21. They would then need to oversee Treasury expenditures until the “X-Date” (the actual date of US default, likely in Spring 2025) and give Congress accurate information about status and risks. In the event that no resolution is reached, default will likely occur around May 2025, triggering a global asset meltdown.

POTENTIAL MITIGATORY AND DEFENSIVE MEASURES

1. Diversify holdings. Given the threat landscape, it is difficult to know what might happen. A diversified portfolio is a good defense, including bonds, real estate, and some gold and silver ETF’s. Use caution not to incur tax costs while rebalancing; use tax advantaged accounts where appropriate to shift allocations. Share these concerns with your financial advisors.

2. Do not hedge with Bitcoin or crypto assets. While this might be tempting, it is important to understand that Bitcoin and “real economy” assets are opposed in a zero-sum game. Every asset in Bitcoin harms all your other assets, while helping speculators.

3. Contact your representatives. Defeating Putin and his allies requires that traditional conservative Republicans break with the House Freedom Caucus and any extremist allies. Help your representatives understand these risks. Many simply do not.

This is a living document. Check back for updates. Have tips? Email Dave Troy or contact me on Signal at davetroy.69.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iwjijEK_6oyN4hV2QahTN0pHcztDNjX5GeeUqWBq_Rw/mobilebasic