2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump [View all]

[TheProle]

https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-polls-accurate-underestimated-trump/story?id=115652118

Despite the early narrative swirling around in the media, 2024 was a pretty good year to be a pollster. According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the last three weeks of the campaign missed the margin of the election by just 2.94 percentage points. In the seven main swing states (minus Arizona, which is not yet at 95 percent reporting), pollsters did even better: They missed the margin by just 2.2 points.

This measure, which we call "statistical error," measures how far off the polls were in each state without regard for whether they systematically overestimated support for one candidate. And by this metric, state-level polling error in 2024 is actually the lowest it has been in at least 25 years. By comparison, state-level polls in 2016 and 2020 had an average error close to 4.7 percentage points. Even in 2012, which stands out as a good year for both polling and election forecasting, the polls missed election outcomes by 3.2 percentage points.