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8. Sorta depends on if/how the war ends.
Thu Nov 21, 2024, 04:14 PM
Thursday

The question seems to indicate belief in the notion that a Trump Presidency will end the war. I'm not so sure, and I have my doubts on Trump accomplishing anything anywhere at any time. But to the larger point:

Outside forces can't impose peace on Palestine/Israel, what makes anyone think they can be imposed on Ukraine/Russia? There are too many variables* to be able to predict much of anything at this point. War could last decades at some level (like guerrilla war), even if a government is ousted in Kyiv or Moscow or both. There is a fairly set process in place for replacing a President in Ukraine, not in Russia. Putin's no spring chicken. Both economies are in some state of shambles, and that is likely to get worse. Ukraine is rumored to be on the verge of making its own nukes, if they haven't done so already. Also, wherever there's a war, there's someone willing to supply the weapons; for a profit or some other advantage, or the promises thereof, of course. See Sudan and Syria and Yemen, among other places. European arms shipments aren't governed by Trump or Putin. Despite Putin spending heavily on right-wing politicians; they haven't slowed down, they've increased. Also, one thing I'm not seeing is any indication that the Ukrainians are willing to surrender.

I also wonder if Trump and his MAGAts would stand in the way of any arms deals between US weapons manufacturers and Ukraine, as long as he sees the owners of the US companies involved as his "friends." Probably depends on who whispers in his ear last (and pays him).

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*not to go down the rabbit hole or anything, but what I REALLY wonder about is China. Are they content to continue to receive energy products from Russia via an aging despot like Putin, who has no designated successor or process to choose one? Chinese farmers have already "colonized" the abandoned collective farms of Siberia (admittedly without challenging sovereignty) and are exporting lots of food back home. Would it make sense for Russia to be defeated and the Chinese to take control of, or establish a puppet state in, Siberia?

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