Poll: Good news for Gingrich and Obama in early states

[coalition_unwilling]

4. Newt is not going to win Iowa, because he doesn't have a ground game there and

it's too late to get one going now. By contrast, Romney and Paul have been working their respective ground games for the past 6-9 months. My prediction for Iowa: Paul wins it, followed by Romeny a close second, Bachmann third and Gingrich fourth in front of Santorum and Huntsman.

The results in Iowa may not be predictive of the eventual Repuke nominee, but Romney is favored in New Hampshire currently and again Paul has committed core support in NH that Gingrich's much-vaunted poll surge does not show. So that means Gingrich might win South Carolina. But one can argue that, in South Carolina, Gingrich is something of a favorite son, being as he hails from a neighboring Southern state.

I'm inclined somewhat to DUer Grantcart's analysis (published here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/10023695) that sees a brokered Repuke convention in Tampa with no candidate having a majority of delegates on the first ballot.