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samsingh

(17,900 posts) Mon Oct 28, 2024, 11:02 AM Oct 28

Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump [View all]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by Omaha Steve (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: Daily Kos

Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.

ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
CNN: Harris 61-36
NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34
That’s 5 polls all showing roughly the same thing. There was also a Marist poll of 3 swing states showing Harris up 10-12 points in the early voting of each state, but I’ll just use national polls. Swing states will be closer than the national average (which is why they’re swing states), but there are also blue states where Harris will be ahead even more.

That’s an average of 61.2% for Harris, 35% for Trump.

What this means is that a partisan split of approx. 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump.

Read more: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/27/2280123/-Early-voting-47-Dem-44-Rep-9-Ind-is-voting-61-35-Harris-Trump

This is what i believe is happening with the higher republican voting. Based on all the polls in the article representing real data (not assumptions), the trend is where i would expect it to be.

Get the vote out!

29 replies

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Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump [View all] samsingh Oct 28 OP

Well samsingh, thank you, this is *exactly* what I think is ACTUALLY happening Leghorn21 Oct 28 #1

One caveat to this is the poll jumbers are almost a week old ColinC Oct 28 #2

The current early voting data demographic/party splits remain the same though Mr.WeRP Oct 28 #4

Yeah. Im looking for as much of a "but where is the catch?!" As possible ColinC Oct 28 #7

Just over a week to go! Let's do this! Mr.WeRP Oct 28 #8

Yes!! samsingh Oct 28 #26

This seems to say a high percentage of indies and repubs are breaking for harris? getagrip_already Oct 28 #3

Which is a huge percentage of republicans. ColinC Oct 28 #5

It may be a huge percentage, Phil1967 Oct 28 #16

Well 7% is how it translated to the overall numbers ColinC Oct 28 #17

You got a point, Phil1967 Oct 28 #19

I expected maybe that amount to not vote. But to outright vote for Harris?! This is pretty shocking ColinC Oct 28 #21

Reply deleted TheRickles Oct 28 #12

that's enough to flip alot of races samsingh Oct 28 #27

Keep in mind that people don't always tell the truth Novara Oct 28 #6

Thanks for posting this Farmer-Rick Oct 28 #9

the aggregators are purposely trying to drive the tight race argument samsingh Oct 28 #28

It would be good to think, once again, that ideas, character, policy, honesty, words, and track records matter and wiggs Oct 28 #10

Landslide !!!! Karadeniz Oct 28 #11

This is great news!!! Thank you, samsingh. wordstroken Oct 28 #13

hopefully those margins will spill over into Senate and House races RussBLib Oct 28 #14

I've seen analysts say up to 10% of R ballots could go for Harris. CaptainTruth Oct 28 #15

Looks good. I hope it holds... Wounded Bear Oct 28 #18

Blue skies lookin' at me, ReRe Oct 28 #20

It is funny how these polls were attacked. former9thward Oct 28 #22

Works for me Rocknation Oct 28 #23

this is great of course but the pattern has always been for Repubs to wait until the day of the election where they will LymphocyteLover Oct 28 #24

Turnout is heavy liberal N proud Oct 28 #25

AFTER a review by forum hosts LOCKING Omaha Steve Oct 28 #29