Pennsylvania

Deminpenn

(16,319 posts)

25. Some back of the envelope calculations

Mon Nov 7, 2022, 09:06 AM

Nov 2022

Last edited Mon Nov 7, 2022, 12:33 PM - Edit history (1)

Just for fun, went to the PA elections website and looked up the 2022 Dem primary numbers to compare to the current mailed vote stats. I used only Fetterman and Lamb and assumed that the % of Ds who vote for Rs and visa versa are about even, meaning 100% of D ballot requests will be for D candidates. I picked out 5 red counties: Beaver, Butler, Cameron, Tioga and Westmoreland.

County Fetterman/Lamb primary total/ Current Mail ballots/ D% Mail /D Mail tot/% banked primary votes
Beaver - 16.860/16,564/71.43%/11,832/70%
Butler - 14.550/20,360/57.4%/11,686/80%
Cameron - 257/434/44.01%/191/74%
Tioga - 1,575/2,582/45.97%/1,187/75%
Westmoreland - 35,574/38,254/66.22%/25,332/71%

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PA voted by mail stats [View all] Deminpenn Nov 2022 OP

Hoping those vote by mail stats carry over to every other state Better Days Ahoy Nov 2022 #1

In PA, mail ballots are down from 2020 numbers although Deminpenn Nov 2022 #2

Ahhh. Thanks for insights. Better Days Ahoy Nov 2022 #3

I love going to vote in person, too Deminpenn Nov 2022 #4

I like the little ovals and handing in the ballot Better Days Ahoy Nov 2022 #7

I get a mail in ballot. tavernier Nov 2022 #5

Smart. You know the process we'll. Better Days Ahoy Nov 2022 #6

Heh heh. Exactly. tavernier Nov 2022 #14

Really can't compare a Midterm to a Presidential Year. 2022 compares favorably to 2018 Midterm's. Tommymac Nov 2022 #19

In my family 75% vote by mail. Quakerfriend Nov 2022 #8

Same here in central Pa. gab13by13 Nov 2022 #10

Remember this, gab13by13 Nov 2022 #9

How many cable news anchors reported this fact? gab13by13 Nov 2022 #11

Yes, more so than ever! Quakerfriend Nov 2022 #12

And most likely when repugs catch wind of who votes that way... GreenWave Nov 2022 #13

I guarantee that the Pa. state politicians gab13by13 Nov 2022 #16

This isn't nearly as many people as 2020, right? ColinC Nov 2022 #15

Pa. vote totals will not be known for 2 days, is my guess, maybe longer. gab13by13 Nov 2022 #17

Complete results on Wednesday Deminpenn Nov 2022 #22

I think since we get full results Wednesday, ColinC Nov 2022 #28

I will always vote by mail unless the worst happens and twodogsbarking Nov 2022 #18

Unfortunately I have vote provisionally, PRETZEL Nov 2022 #20

The election board gets a list of everyone who voted by absentee/mail Deminpenn Nov 2022 #24

No, was already told I have to vote provisionally, PRETZEL Nov 2022 #27

Reports like these FeelingBlue Nov 2022 #21

But there is a very good tracking system bucolic_frolic Nov 2022 #23

Some back of the envelope calculations Deminpenn Nov 2022 #25

Pretty close to actual results Deminpenn Nov 2022 #31

Does that count mail-in ballots dropped of in person? Orrex Nov 2022 #26

Yes, this is all absentee ballots Deminpenn Nov 2022 #29

Thanks! Orrex Nov 2022 #30