Kamala Harris Will Be In Houston On Thursday - Is Texas In Play?

[TwilightZone]

5. It's unlikely to be in play for a few reasons.

Mail-in voting is highly restricted: over 65, sick/disabled, out of the county for early voting and election day, giving birth within three weeks, or in jail. Everyone else votes in person.

Voter apathy and turnout are serious problems here in Texas. We're working on them, but they're a big challenge.

Texas is also a relatively young state, 3rd lowest median age in the country. Younger voters have lower turnout, of course.

Polls can be misleading for all of these reasons. "Likely voters" aren't as likely to vote as in most other states. The lower the turnout, the better it is for the GOP.

This article from 2018 is a good summary, and the circumstances haven't changed significantly since then, with the exception of further restrictions put in place by Abbott in 2020.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/23/texas-voter-turnout-electorate-explainer/