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progree

(11,463 posts)
1. Continuing claims up by 10,000 from the previous report
Thu Mar 23, 2023, 08:18 AM
Mar 2023

Last edited Thu Mar 23, 2023, 09:45 AM - Edit history (1)

From the source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Initial claims: 191,000, down by 1,000 from previous week. The previous week was unrevised

Insured unemployment aka continuing claims: 1,694,000, an increase of 14,000 from previous week. The previous week was revised down by 4,000 (so compared to the last Thursday's report, it increased 14,000 - 4,000 = 10,000. Last Thursday, 1,684,000 continuing claims were reported)

I've always been a bit aberrant in thinking that revisions to previous reports are just as important as this week's change from the revised number. (Same with the payroll job numbers)

Great graphs of above link. While the general trend has been down for initial claims, and then flat from about February 1, in contrast for continuing claims which has been up from early October - mid December and then flat since then.

Edited to add- I see from the calendar that the next inflation report is Friday March 31 -- the PCE which is the Fed's favorite one (the core PCE specifically).

The last reports, in mid-March:

the CPI report thru February was bad (3 month average core CPI 5.2% annualized),
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143045881#post6

while the PPI (wholesale prices) thru February was good (3 month average core PPI 3.7% annualized). "Good" because the last month, February, was 2.4% annualized.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143046276#post3

the PCE through January (released late February) (3 month average core PCE 4.7% annualized)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143038482#post12
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