2016 Postmortem

BlueMTexpat

(15,515 posts)

17. I believe that you underestimate just how

Thu Dec 17, 2015, 05:53 AM

Dec 2015

deeply committed Hillary's supporters are. We are overwhelmingly composed of committed lifelong Dems who vote for Dems consistently, not simply for flashes in the pan who suddenly pop up in an election cycle - however attractive they may seem - who attract some voters who quite likely will desert them the second they do not demonstrate consistent purity or when they adapt to the requirements of the "establishment."

And yes, we committed supporters are very well aware of the nastiness. I believe that you underestimate that too.

Any Dem candidate in the GE must have the full support of the Dem establishment and the kinds of voters who, according to the polls, are leaning heavily towards Hillary. Dem endorsements also are heavily in Hillary's favor. People can rail against the "establishment" all they want and there is more than a kernel of truth in such railing. But without that support, a win in the GE is impossible.

The primaries will show whether I'm right or not. But the odds right now are definitely in Hillary's favor.

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Who do you believe will be the Democratic Nominee? [View all] KMOD Dec 2015 OP

This Citizen Will Vote For Bernie Sanders Based On Policy And Position cantbeserious Dec 2015 #1

That's fine. KMOD Dec 2015 #2

This Citizen Expects Bernie To Be The Nominee cantbeserious Dec 2015 #3

cool KMOD Dec 2015 #4

And we get the final word. NCTraveler Dec 2015 #34

Well VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #5

The link says it all. n/t murielm99 Dec 2015 #6

That poll has to be wrong demosincebirth Dec 2015 #7

There is a little something at this link for everyone. NCTraveler Dec 2015 #35

The "R" in RCP stands for Republican. Dem2 Dec 2015 #41

Obligatory point for Lincoln Chaffee Scootaloo Dec 2015 #8

Undecided... 2naSalit Dec 2015 #9

I think Hillary will win every caucus and primary Yupster Dec 2015 #10

Most foolish thing I've heard all night. Fearless Dec 2015 #12

Starting to look pretty close to a clean sweep. NCTraveler Dec 2015 #36

At the moment Bernie still leads in NH comradebillyboy Dec 2015 #54

and I'd imagine he'd win his home state too Yupster Dec 2015 #64

I know who I want to be the nominee, Blue_In_AK Dec 2015 #11

Unpredictable DFW Dec 2015 #13

The poll results so far BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #14

I think you overestimate how many of the supporters of any candidate are deeply commited Kentonio Dec 2015 #15

I believe that you underestimate just how BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #17

Most people are sick of the sight of the democratic establishment Kentonio Dec 2015 #20

LOL - that loss you all keep referring to - BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #22

Why would he need you 'all' to desert en masse? Kentonio Dec 2015 #27

If it makes you feel better to believe that, BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #40

**Most** people? Really? what hole did you pull that presumption out of? Sheepshank Dec 2015 #45

You are hoping..... VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #19

Of course Kentonio Dec 2015 #21

Glad I have more than hope VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #25

That one poll is from a pollster who knows Iowa and is extremely accurate. Kentonio Dec 2015 #29

So what do the others say? VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #42

The others are talking about 20+ gaps. We're not afraid to say, we just find that ridiculous. Kentonio Dec 2015 #43

Then why keep touting this ONE poll as if it is indicative of reality? VanillaRhapsody Dec 2015 #47

Why would we hang our hopes on this poll? Kentonio Dec 2015 #48

Yes, that's how it looks to me as well. KMOD Dec 2015 #32

I will vote for Bernie Sanders get the red out Dec 2015 #16

Fair enough. eom BlueMTexpat Dec 2015 #18

In my heart of hearts: ENOUGH IS ENOUGH IS ENOUGH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hiraeth Dec 2015 #23

That Thanksgiving group failed miserably in DC Sheepshank Dec 2015 #46

Enough is Enough is a common Bernie Sanders utterance to the rigged system. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #52

I brought it up because it was such a clear reminder of the fraudulent rally. Sheepshank Dec 2015 #57

Ah, I understand. Yes, Happy. JonLeibowitz Dec 2015 #58

Hillary Clinton stonecutter357 Dec 2015 #24

Though she is not my 1st choice, most indicators ... 1StrongBlackMan Dec 2015 #26

Hillary, but hoping for Bernie or Martin (nt) bigwillq Dec 2015 #28

Trump Renew Deal Dec 2015 #30

While I don't prefer the outcome... joshcryer Dec 2015 #31

Yes, I would expect to to fight for your candidate of choice. KMOD Dec 2015 #33

There's always hope, but it would have to be a stunning reversal whatthehey Dec 2015 #37

"Never seen" Kentonio Dec 2015 #44

A very facile surface comparison only whatthehey Dec 2015 #49

Interesting results... Agschmid Dec 2015 #38

well, I'm an O'Malley supporter who sees Clinton getting it. KittyWampus Dec 2015 #39

Almost a tie at this point. TIME TO PANIC Dec 2015 #50

Hmm...lack of confidence, perhaps? brooklynite Dec 2015 #51

I'm realistic, it'll probably be Clinton Reter Dec 2015 #53

Probably Clinton. The least progressive of the three. Tierra_y_Libertad Dec 2015 #55

People appear to be voting honestly in this poll, MineralMan Dec 2015 #56

I will be very proud to vote for Bernie Sanders Trajan Dec 2015 #59

I too will vote for the Dem in the general election TeddyR Dec 2015 #60

Well now that is a big difference from just a few months ago. Rex Dec 2015 #61

No, this poll isn't for who you are supporting, KMOD Dec 2015 #62

Ah then that explains it. Rex Dec 2015 #63

Predictwise has Clinton at 94% to be the Democratic nominee Gothmog Dec 2015 #65

*GASP* Tote Life Dec 2015 #66