Looking at the Virginia Health Department Covid contact tracing data this morning. [View all]

[Yonnie3]

https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-data-insights/covid-19-contact-tracing/

I may be misunderstanding, but the data seems to show it is not going so well.

51.1 Percent of Cases Interviewed by VDH
43.6 Percent of Cases Who Provided Close Contacts
92.0 Percent of Contacts Interviewed by VDH

Stringing that all together, I calculate that there is a 20.5% chance that you will be contacted by them if you were in contact with a known positive. Factor in that there are an unknown number of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic case that are not tested, it is actually even worse. I suppose some people who will not cooperate with VDH are informing their contacts, so maybe it is not quite so bad.

The vaccines were tested and tracked for the prevention of serious illness, not prevention of the infection. I read that in Israel they are doing rigorous contract tracing and testing of contacts and are saying the mRNA vaccine seems to be at about 65% effective in preventing infections.

I remain cautious in my interactions.