WSHazel
WSHazel's JournalThis election feels a lot like 2004
In 2004 we had a strong, if imperfect, candidate that couldn't quite get the message across to enough people that there were some things seriously wrong with the other candidate and his handlers.
Bush won in 2004. Both wars got worse, and within 3 years there was a catastrophic financial crisis.
We can blame Harris and Dillon and whoever all we want for what happened Tuesday, but sometimes the American people just make a gigantic mistake.
Harris will lose by a very similar margin in the popular vote to what Kerry did in 2004.
Can Andrea Mitchell retire at the next commercial break?
She is just repeating and amplifying Trump talking points today. She is insufferable.
Pollsters are waiving the white flag
https://x.com/PurringProgress/status/1852936724063699139https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1852476681958666270
Other than Selzer, and a handful of state focused pollsters, the polling services have given up on this election. They are not even trying anymore. When someone like Nate Silver, who has his own credibility problems, calls out an entire industry for making up their results, you know there is a problem.
These are not really even polls anymore, and they are not even guesses of what will happen. These "polls" are just someone aligning their results to match everyone else's results.
Other than Selzer and a few of those local organizations, we are flying blind heading into Tuesday.
CNN GA and NC update
Source: CNN
More than half of the likely electorate in both Georgia (59%) and North Carolina (52%) say they’ve already cast their ballots, with those voters splitting narrowly toward Harris by a 7-point margin in Georgia and by 6 points in North Carolina.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/31/politics/cnn-poll-georgia-north-carolina/index.html
A 7 point margin with over half the vote cast in Georgia is not a narrow margin. Nor is a 6 point margin with over half the vote cast in North Carolina. Party ID stats for both states actually give Republicans a slight edge, so Harris' leads in these two states are looking better and better.
CNN has decided to die on the hill of its LV screen. When over half the vote, split evenly by party ID, is coming back with Harris with a material lead, maybe their LV screen is a bit off. We will know soon enough if they are right.
Lincoln Project Ad: Fathers, think before you vote
Source: Lincoln Project
"You chose 'hate' over me"
Read more: https://x.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1843773404152819788?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1843773404152819788%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
These Lincoln Project guys are good at their job.
Trump used the term "remigration" in a tweet three days ago
Why isn't this all over the news this week?
Harris has not fallen asleep once
Is that normal for a Presidential candidate at their convention? Because at the last convention, their nominee slept through most of it.
California and New York need to count their votes early
For that matter, every blue state should. We need the mail in and early vote counted before Election Day so those vote totals posts 20-30 minutes after polls close in those states. They can count late arriving ballots afterward, but there is no reason not to start counting the bulk of the votes 2 weeks in advance.
If CA and NY posted big vote numbers at poll close, it would change the narrative on election night and immediately afterward, and also highlight how ridiculous the electoral college is. If both states dropped their early vote like TX and FL do, the narrative every election night would be that Democrats are crushing Republicans. Instead, the narrative is "close race" and the Democratic candidate does not pull way ahead until a week later, after everyone has stopped paying attention. Biden is going to win by 6-7 million votes and most people will think this was a close election. That is our own fault.
Furthermore, if the Democrat nominee was ahead by 4 million votes nationally at 11:15 when CA's early numbers came in, it would be hard to ignore in the studios that one candidate was crushing the other but the race was remotely in doubt because of an anachronistic system based on the most horrific institution in American history, slavery.
Something Democrats MUST DO going forward to change the narrative
Democrats have to stop accepting the GOP's premises such as "popular vote doesn't matter". The popular vote doesn't matter because of anachronistic rules developed under slavery, and because Republicans say it doesn't matter. The Democrats must point out that the electoral college is a legacy of slavery every time it comes up, I mean, every single time. If, 3 months from now, someone is talking about the election, the liberal on the panel has to say "that is a legacy of slavery". If a Republican starts to defend the electoral college, ask them why they are defending slavery.
We need to make the narrative Electoral College = Slavery.
Murkowski and Romney
Is there a deal with the devil to be made in the Senate?
Romney is a lot more moderate than the rest of the GOP. He will be 77 when his term ends, is worth $250 million, and doesn't need this shit of working with a party that hates him. I think the chance of him running again is slim to none.
Murkowski is going to get a primary challenge in 2022. She dodged the last one 10 years ago by running as a write-in, and pulled it off, but the Democrats are going to be prepared for a split GOP this time and will have a real candidate to try to steal a seat.
What if Romney and Murkowski switched to independents, and caucused with Democrats for leadership, or even split the leadership of the Senate? I am thinking of ANYTHING to get Mitch McConnell out of the Majority Leader position.
Obviously, Ossoff and Warnock sweeping Georgia are Plan A, but Schumer's leverage is at its highest if he goes to Murkowski and Romney right now with an offer.
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Member since: Wed Sep 23, 2020, 10:36 AMNumber of posts: 283