October 19, 2023

Leader Jeffries has an interesting decision to make.

Do we help the gop install McHenry as a pro tempore speaker with extended powers or do we not ?

On one hand, that could be an opportunity to extract concessions and get the ball running for urgent matters like aid to Israel, Ukraine and the looming budget shutdown.

On the other hand, can we really trust the gop to hold up their side of the bargain? They reneged on the deal that was struck after the debt ceiling drama which spelled out spending levels for the next two years.

That's above my pay grade. I am glad we have a competent leader at the helm.

June 7, 2023

My crystal ball is foggy. Who would be the GOP nominee If Trump dropped.

dead or in jail or whatever. The rest of the field is not very charismatic.

I can't see Pence motivating the troops. De Santis is quickly getting irrelevant because his woke stance is starting to backfire and he is a dunce when it comes to public apparences.

Nikki Haley is a light weight and I question whether the deeply misogynistic, xenophobic gop electorate would vote for her, ditto for senator Scott.

Christie maybe could but he would never get enough Maga votes.

February 21, 2023

Regarding Carlson getting the cctv footage from the capitol

I can already see one obvious story they will run. Ashley Babbit. When she was shot, there were calls for the capitol police to reveal the identity of the security officer who did it. Ultimately, his actions were reviewed, deemed appropriate and his identity was kept secret to protect him and his family.

That CCTV footage is from all angles, every CCTV camera. So, its very likely that there is an angle from the other side of that door where the officer was that shows his face. He will be doxed and hunted by the magats. He and his family will have to go in hiding or risk getting killed.

Its not hyperbola, the magats did that to some election officials. Given how hyped they were about Babbit and the number of conspiracy theories that flourished, its exactly what will happen.

McCarthy will be responsible for whatever might happen.

February 8, 2023

President Biden Sotus address in the context of the 2024 candidacy.

President Biden delivered a magnificent address, simultaneously highlighting his administration's many successes while directly pushing back at the gop and playing them like a fiddle.

Last night he clearly demonstrated to naysayers that he is still one of the best retail politician in history. He was born to be a leader and president.
How many presidents managed to turn around right direction/wrong direction polls in one night by 60 points in some instances ?

That SOTUS speech will be studied by future generations of political science students.

Clearly it should set aside all claims that President Biden is not sharp or energetic enough .

This brings me to a question. The dnc recently announced that they are reshuffling the primaries, South Carolina will be first.

After tonight, is there anybody on our side who would challenge Biden for nomination? Usually incumbent presidents seeking reelection aren't challenged in their own party.

So, those changes in primaries with really come into play into 2028.

January 8, 2023

Upcoming congressional fiscal policies deadlines.

https://www.crfb.org/blogs/upcoming-congressional-fiscal-policy-deadlines

The President signed the FY 2023 omnibus appropriations bill on Thursday, Dec. 29. The House passed the measure by a 221-205-1 vote on Friday, Dec. 23, following Senate passage by a 68-29 vote on Thursday, Dec. 22. To allow more time for full enactment of the omnibus, Congress enacted a third continuing resolution for FY 2023 through Dec. 30.

The next few years will include several predictable fiscal policy deadlines that will force congressional action. Numerous provisions providing COVID relief expire at the end of the year. Many of the regular non-COVID deadlines could bring additional costs if Congress acts irresponsibly, or they could present an opportunity for Congress to reduce deficits.

With a dysfunctional house of representatives, what are the hurdles one must overcome to keep the country going?

This article summarizes that well.

Of note, the debt ceiling limit which is estimated to be reached this summer.

Then, of course the student loan repayment which is currently paused after the attempt to forgive some of the debt was blocked by the courts.

A few other interesting things there I was not aware of.

Will McCarthy still be at the helm in september 2023 when the next budget has to get negociated and voted? I am skeptical.

November 13, 2022

msnbc now projects only 219 for gop.

https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1591575421367504896?t=MycY9yDHQkAxlrqMRZjHvA&s=19

it's shrinking by the hour. We stand a good chance to hold the house. It would make me so happy for two reasons.

First and foremost we can continue the great work for the next two years and second It would be so awesome to see McCarthy realize his hopes are all gone. He humiliated himself, ditched whatever shred of integrity he had and supported Trump just to be speaker. If that fails he might just stroke out..

November 10, 2022

One thing we have not talked about much is the importance of state houses and governorships

in the context of the 2024 elections. So far Wisconsin has reelected Tony Evers (D), we won the control of the Michigan legislature for the first time in decades and of course Gretchen Whitmer won, Pennsylvania got us Fetterman for the senate and Shapiro for governor. It looks like Katy Hobes might win the Arizona Governorship if the remaining votes keep to favor her.

All of these states are critical to avoid a repeat of the 2020 attempt in rigging the presidential election. Hopefully that will put a damper on the GOP attempts to subvert democracy in 2024.

November 10, 2022

two down, two to go.

so we are rid of cawthorn and boebert. Now we need to oust Taylor and Gaetz. One can always hope they end up caught by the law. With these two, it's not impossible..

November 9, 2022

For people concerned about the house

We stand a good chance of holding it. Current projections are 218-217. If we do happen to lose it , it will be with a very slim margin.

If it comes to this Nancy Pelosi is a much better leader than McCarthy . She was able to deliver a lot with just a few seats margin.

McCarthy won't be able to control his side given how many of them are just there to fling poop instead of legislating . Of course , President Biden or the senate that I believe we are going to hold will also be able to stop any bill in its tracks.

The only thing they will be able to do is start stupid congressional investigations that will go nowhere other than making it even more obvious to voters that the GOP is incapable to govern ahead of 2024.
Make no mistake. It was a huge loss for the GOP.

September 17, 2022

inveiglement. A seldomly used word.

noun. Something that attracts, especially with the promise of pleasure or reward: allurement, bait, come-on, enticement, inducement, invitation, lure, seduction, temptation.


Why do I bring this up ?


Well, it can get you in trouble with this federal statute :

18 U.S. Code § 1201 - Kidnapping


https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/1201


It's possible that what De Santis and his crew did fall under this. In fact, Glenn Kirschner was making this point on Joyce Reed show.

They basically lied to these asylum seekers to fly them and drop them thousands of miles away .